Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming guided weapons streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a drone close by, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration operates on a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
