Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has has something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
